Climate Refugees: The New Reality of Forced Displacement in Mexico

María José Chavez Salas

October 27, 2025

6-minute read

Keywords: Forced Displacement, Climate Change, Heavy Rainfall, Climate Refugees, Legal Gap.

Mexico City Under Water

On August 10, 2025, Mexico City experienced one of the heaviest rainfalls in the last century. According to the Head of Government, Clara Brugada, 84.5 millimeters of rain fell in the Zócalo in one hour and 50 millimeters in just 20 minutes, surpassing the historical record of 67 mm set in 1952 (Mariana Alcántara Contreras, 2025). A month earlier, in June, the capital had already shown signs of saturation: it was estimated to have received around 337 million cubic meters of rain, more than twice the historical average for that month (Pepe Herrera, 2025).

In recent weeks, extreme rainfall has hit much of the country. In Veracruz, at least 48 municipalities have been affected by historic floods and river overflows, especially in Poza Rica, Álamo, and Espinal, where thousands of homes were submerged, and hundreds of families evacuated. At the same time, storms and landslides caused by the remnants of systems Priscilla and Raymond have left more than 70 dead and severe damage across 150 municipalities in various states (Reuters, El País, Proceso, 

Image created with AI (2025)

Today, the consequences are felt in daily life: endless commutes, flooded streets, and permanent damage to homes. But beyond inconvenience, these rains are the local expression of a global climate crisis. These are not isolated events but part of a recurring and intensifying pattern in cities worldwide — Jakarta, Miami, Bangkok, Acapulco, Mexico City, and now Veracruz.

Scientific projections point to an increasingly wet and extreme future. If current trends continue, entire areas of the capital could become flooded or uninhabitable in the coming decades. In that scenario, thousands of residents may be forced to abandon or relocate, facing a reality that until recently seemed distant: becoming — without a legal framework to protect them — Mexico’s first urban climate refugees.

The Concept of Climate Refugee: A Legal Void

Climate migration is increasingly common, with documented cases worldwide. Since 2008, an annual average of 21.5 million people has been forcibly displaced by sudden climate-related threats — including droughts, floods, storms, wildfires, rising sea levels, and extreme temperatures (UNHCR).

However, this type of migration is not formally recognized as part of forced migration in international legal frameworks, leaving millions in legal vulnerability. The 1951 Refugee Convention only protects those fleeing war, violence, conflict, or persecution who cross an international border in search of safety. Displacement solely in the context of climate change or disasters is not covered, though it can apply when climate change increases the risk of persecution or violence.

This term appears only partially in some regional laws:

• The OAU Convention and Cartagena Declaration (1984) include protection for those facing events that “seriously disturb public order,” which could encompass climate phenomena.

• The Cartagena+40 Declaration (Chile, 2025) proposed a comprehensive approach to displacement caused by natural disasters, strengthening regional leadership.

Despite these advances, the term “climate refugees” still lacks official international recognition.

The Case of El Bosque: An Alarming Precedent

Climate migration is not foreign to Mexico. The case of El Bosque, in Tabasco, is a powerful precedent: this fishing community was forced to abandon its homes due to coastal erosion, rising sea levels, and extreme weather events. Recognized as Mexico’s first official case of climate displacement, it is an early warning of what may repeat along other coasts and deltas.

This case has raised awareness that migration can affect anyone, regardless of socioeconomic status. El Bosque demonstrates that the effects of climate change know no social or economic boundaries.

Internal Forced Displacement (IFD): A Growing Reality

El Bosque connects to a broader phenomenon: Internal Forced Displacement (IFD) — when people are forced to flee their homes without crossing national borders. In Mexico, IFD takes on critical dimensions amid climate change and increasingly frequent extreme events.

According to the World Bank (2021), in a worst-case scenario, up to 3.1 million people could be internally displaced by 2050 due to floods, droughts, coastal erosion, and more intense cyclones. For example, Hurricane Otis devastated Acapulco in October 2023 after rapidly intensifying from a tropical storm to Category 5 in less than 12 hours — a phenomenon attributed by the National Meteorological Service (SMN, 2024) and the UN to the accelerated warming of the Pacific Ocean.

This trend is compounded by intensifying El Niño and La Niña cycles, alternating years of extreme drought with torrential rain. Studies from UNAM (2025) and SMN show these cycles are becoming more erratic, leading to increasingly unpredictable climate seasons.

Recent evidence from Mexico City raises an unavoidable question: what can we expect over the next decade? The 2025 rainfall records are not isolated events but part of a shifting and cumulative pattern. If current trends persist, vulnerable zones — such as Iztapalapa, Xochimilco, or Tláhuac — may face increasingly frequent floods, rendering some neighborhoods uninhabitable. What today means an extra hour of commuting could tomorrow mean the permanent loss of a home.

Final Reflection: What Can We Expect If It’s Not in the Law?

The lack of a specific legal framework for climate refugees creates multiple gaps. Without formal recognition, those displaced by environmental causes lack access to the same rights and protections as other refugees. This results in concrete shortcomings:

• Lack of access to basic services and safe housing

• Absence of planned relocation programs

• No mechanisms for loss compensation

• Lack of preventive disaster policies

• Limited access to asylum or international protection

As UNHCR Mexico (2024) warns, climate change is already transforming human mobility and poses a direct challenge to current protection systems. Yet, Mexico still lacks an adequate legal and policy response to this new reality.

It is urgent to explore new solutions. Mexico could follow international precedents such as the Tuvalu–Australia agreement, which created climate visas for communities threatened by the sea, and adapt them to its context. Concrete reforms could include updating the Refugee Law and Migration Law to incorporate complementary protection for environmental or climatic causes, as suggested by the UN Human Rights Committee (Teitiota case, 2020).

Likewise, it is essential to promote approval of the General Law on Internal Forced Displacement, stalled in Congress since 2021, adding a chapter specifically addressing displacements caused by climate change and natural disasters. This would establish early warning systems, official registries of affected communities, and funds for dignified, planned relocation.

At the urban level, preventive adaptation policies are needed: strengthening territorial planning, redesigning rainwater drainage systems, protecting aquifer recharge zones, and ensuring affordable housing outside risk areas.

The experiences of El Bosque, Tabasco, and the extreme weather events of 2025 in Mexico City and Veracruz make one thing clear: this is no longer an academic debate. It is a political, legal, and social necessity.

The question, then, is no longer if we should create specific policies for climate refugees — but how much longer will we wait to do so?

References:

ACNUR México (2023): "Cambio climático y desplazamiento: mitos y realidades". https://www.acnur.org/mx/noticias/historias/cambio-climatico-y-desplazamiento-mitos-y-realidades

ACNUR México (2024): "ACNUR alerta sobre el impacto del cambio climático en las comunidades de refugiados". https://www.acnur.org/mx/noticias/notas-de-prensa/acnur-alerta-sobre-el-impacto-del-cambio-climatico-en-las-comunidades-de-refugiados

ACNUR México: "Cambio climático y desplazamiento por desastres". https://www.acnur.org/mx/cambio-climatico-y-desplazamiento-por-desastres

ACNUR México: "Desplazamiento y cambio climático". https://www.acnur.org/mx/desplazamiento-y-cambio-climatico

ACNUR: "Declaración de Cartagena sobre los Refugiados". https://www.acnur.org/media/declaracion-de-cartagena-sobre-los-refugiados

Minrel Chile (2025): "Proceso de Cartagena +40". https://www.minrel.gob.cl/proceso-de-cartagena-40

Noticias ONU (2021): "ACNUR pide crear un mecanismo para coordinar los desplazamientos de personas en México y América Central". https://news.un.org/es/story/2021/12/1500862

Refworld (2024): "ACNUR: Reunión de expertos. Interpretación de la definición ampliada de refugiado contenida en la Declaración de Cartagena sobre Refugiados de 1984". https://www.refworld.org/es/pol/inforreu/acnur/2014/es/129590